The Projected Growth of Swine Flu
As there is not enough information yet it is difficult to accurately predict the spread of the virus. Current information would suggest a daily factor of between 1.2 and 1.7. Based upon a population with 50 million hosts starting from a single/small cluster of cases the behavior would be expected to be as in the table below. Please note this is the number of people exposed to the virus - though some will have immunity so show no symptoms.
Day |
Factor 1.2 |
Factor 1.5 |
Factor 1.7 |
| 1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| 2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| 3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
| 4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
| 5 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
| 6 |
2 |
8 |
14 |
| 7 |
3 |
11 |
24 |
| 8 |
4 |
17 |
41 |
| 9 |
4 |
26 |
70 |
| 10 |
5 |
38 |
119 |
| 11 |
6 |
58 |
202 |
| 12 |
7 |
86 |
343 |
| 13 |
9 |
130 |
583 |
| 14 |
11 |
195 |
990 |
| 15 |
13 |
292 |
1,684 |
| 16 |
15 |
438 |
2,862 |
| 17 |
18 |
657 |
4,866 |
| 18 |
22 |
985 |
8,272 |
| 19 |
27 |
1,478 |
14,063 |
| 20 |
32 |
2,217 |
23,907 |
| 21 |
38 |
3,325 |
40,642 |
| 22 |
46 |
4,988 |
69,092 |
| 23 |
55 |
7,482 |
117,456 |
| 24 |
66 |
11,223 |
199,676 |
| 25 |
79 |
16,834 |
339,449 |
| 26 |
95 |
25,251 |
577,063 |
| 27 |
114 |
37,877 |
981,007 |
| 28 |
137 |
56,815 |
1,667,711 |
| 29 |
165 |
85,223 |
2,835,109 |
| 30 |
198 |
127,834 |
4,819,686 |
| 31 |
237 |
191,751 |
8,193,466 |
| 32 |
285 |
287,627 |
13,928,892 |
| 33 |
342 |
431,440 |
23,679,116 |
| 34 |
410 |
647,160 |
40,254,497 |
| 35 |
492 |
970,740 |
50,000,000 |
| 36 |
591 |
1,456,110 |
50,000,000 |
| 37 |
709 |
2,184,164 |
50,000,000 |
| 38 |
851 |
3,276,247 |
50,000,000 |
| 39 |
1,021 |
4,914,370 |
50,000,000 |
| 40 |
1,225 |
7,371,555 |
50,000,000 |
| 41 |
1,470 |
11,057,332 |
50,000,000 |
| 42 |
1,764 |
16,585,998 |
50,000,000 |
| 43 |
2,116 |
24,878,998 |
50,000,000 |
| 44 |
2,540 |
37,318,497 |
50,000,000 |
| 45 |
3,048 |
50,000,000 |
50,000,000 |
| 46 |
3,657 |
50,000,000 |
50,000,000 |
|
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